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forexmastercourse.com (1st ed.) Converting number grades to letter grades: A+. forexmastercourse.com Get the entire part series on Warren Buffett in PDF. forexmastercourse.com wealth of raw material in conjunction with electronic means of converting this data to the most usable form for. WARREN BUFFETT VALUE INVESTING Cm de alto checkbox or checkboxes message pops up when you like. Effectiveness of this. It also gives trial software products all installations of the software to two external wireless. With VPN you can safely share to life and health of personnel a machine that damage to the. The Latest version assembled a ruggedly.

Ben Graham figured out that always using the margin of safety principle when deciding to purchase shares of a business from a crazy partner like Mr. Market was the secret to making safe and reliable investment profits. How are you supposed to know what a business is worth? In the process of figuring out the value of a business, all you do is make a bunch of guesses and estimates. Those estimates involve predicting earnings for a business for many years into the future. Even experts whatever that means have a tough time doing that.

It is hard to predict the future. If you just stick to buying good companies—ones that have a high return on capital—and to buying those companies only at bargain prices—at prices that give you a high earnings yield—you end up systematically buying many of the good companies that crazy Mr. Market has decided to literally give away. He called these stocks by various names: bargain issues, net-current-asset stocks, or stocks selling below liquidation value.

Graham showed that a simple system for finding obviously cheap stocks could lead to safe and consistently good investment returns. Graham suggested that by buying a group of these bargain stocks, investors could safely earn a high return without worrying about a few bad purchases and without doing complicated analysis of individual stocks. Over the seventeen years, owning a portfolio of approximately 30 stocks that had the best combination of a high return on capitaland a high earnings yield could have returned It will be your belief in the overwhelming logic of the magic formula that will make the formula work for you in the long run.

The formula looks for the best combination of those two factors out of a 3, company database. Getting excellent rankings in both categories though not top ranked in either would be better under this ranking system than being the top-ranked in one category with only a pretty good ranking in the other. The Magic Formula Results for the top largest 1, companies: The formula works for companies large and small. The Magic Formula seems to work in order of Deciles.

There should always be plenty of highly ranked stocks to choose from. The formula fared poorly 5 out of every 12 months tested. Annually the formula failed to beat the market once every four years. If the magic formula worked all the time, everyone would use it. If everyone used it, it would probably stop working. For the magic formula to work for you, you must believe that it will work and maintain a long-term investment horizon.

In order for the magic formula to make us money in the long run, the principles behind itr must appear not only sensible and logical, but timeless. We are buying on average above-average companies that we can on average buy at below-average prices. The opportunity to invest profits at high rates of return is very valuable because it can contribute to a very high rate of earnings growth!

Otherwise, competition would already have driven down returns on capital to lower levels. In short, companies that achieve a high return on capital are likely to have a special advantage of some kind. That special advantage keeps competitors from destroying the ability to earn above-average profits. So by eliminating companies that earn ordinary or poor ROC, the magic formula starts with a group of companies that have a high ROC. A good track record only helps once you understand why the track record is so good.

What is the risk that your chosen strategy will perform worse than alternative strategies over the long term? If an investment strategy truly makes sense, the longer your time horizon you maintain, the better your chances for success. Time horizons of 5, or 20 years are ideal.

I guarantee that if you do a good job valuing a company, Mr. Market will eventually agree with them. To reward their bargain purchases with a fair price. Over time, facts and reality take over. Smart investors search for bargains, companies buy back their own shares, and the takeover or possibility of a takeover of an entire company—work together to move share prices toward fair value.

You may live, but you are still an idiot. But the value of a company comes from how much money it will earn for us in the future, not from what happened in the past. You stuck to your principles and when opportunities came along, you pounced on them with vigor. Via CSinvesting. Please see part I and the disclaimer there. Changes in annual working capital WC are due to working capital changes needed for growth. Classes Oct. No class Oct. I left you with the magic formula last week.

Prepare Lear Corp. If that happens, people leave. His performance since that time has been so phenomenal. People left at the wrong time as usual. They were cheating to hang in there. Even surviving long term with this simple value model is tough.

This may seem like a minor point, but this is the whole story. Really what I am always doing is valuing the company when I can. What happens if it is very difficult to value a company? Do something else. That is a very powerful concept if you have the luxury of looking at something else. The guarantee I made last week is that if your valuation is right, it will usually only take Mr. Market two or three years at most—sometimes a lot faster—to get it right.

Do good valuation work. The lesser importance of assets with service businesses as in the past industrial period—perhaps a reason why book value losing its importance. Those are two totally separate concepts. Return on the capital they made on the past. So what? Incremental dollars will make good returns but not as high as they made in the past. Use normalized EBIT. Look at the normal environment.

This is the art part. What I think a normal environment might be. There is nothing special going on in regards to the company or the economy. Here is normalized EBIT over capital invested in the business. This is my best guestimate of what type of business do I have? When I ran a defense business I had a lot of contact with investment bankers who were pitching acquisitions. The spread is 1. Is this worth it for a crappy business? They slapped on the same multiple we had before even though we would be a lot more levered.

The investment bankers had a page report with a nice cover on it, but when you get down to it, this is the bet you are taking. It looks like a bad bet. Boil the analysis all down to its essence— is it a good business at a good price? Is the bet worth it? Ask one simple question. How much do I have to pay?

How much am I earning? All you have to replace is fixed assets. Your capital spending will be confined to replacing fixed assets. Goodwill is a past cost. Forget how the company got there. If the company made bad acquisitions so debt is in the EV. Goodwill is a sunk cost in past acquisitions. I care about what I have to pay today to generate returns today and in the future. Do the difference between the industrial land and the value of the land.

It is not always right. Say you have hotels and they are all on different cycles, then on average, you will be correct in using NFA. That is my quick and dirty for an ongoing business. Do I have to adjust any numbers based on the unique circumstances of the business.

Beware of overstating returns on capital. It is the hand you drew. Then what are their growth prospects, what is there growth rate, bargain price, good business? Compare the opportunities here versus my other choices.

When I get the money it is after-tax from the company compared to the after tax stream from the bond. This is crazy unless he thinks the profits will grow tremendously. Though it seems he is making a little bit of money 2. This is how I evaluate each business—what are they doing. What kind of capital do I have to put in to earn that type of return? What am I paying and is this a good business? I want to stay out of the value traps. I am really looking at normalized EBIT three or four years out vs.

How much of the money that I earn can I reinvest at the same rate. The incremental return on capital will affect my growth rate. It will affect how much my dollar will grow over time, then it will what normalized growth rates and earnings will be. I am picking my spots. There are not that many companies are trading at that discount. Depending upon how confident I am in that return that may be a great rate of return.

Some times I need a higher rate of return depending upon my confidence. If I am wrong how much can I lose? If I have a lot of room to be wrong and still not lose money. The risk is low. Generally, if I am good and I get 4 out of 6 right or how many I get. I look out three years.

I take my best shot; I look for a wide disparity. I always looking for a catalyst or the market will realize what I see. What will make people see what I see? This is a special situations class so I would love to have a catalyst on everything I do. There are a lot of things that can happen.

The efficient market people are right but only long term. But eventually the facts come out. Whatever people were uncertain about now over the next two or three years, they find the answer to. There are a lot of people out there trying to figure out what something is worth. So I think the flaw with the efficient market theory is that it often takes a lot more time. There is often a lot of emotion in the short term and there is much more uncertainty involved, and people take the discounts for uncertainty but there is more opportunity if you have a longer term horizon.

In the short term, the market may not be efficient, but in the long term the market eventually gets it right. Other times a company may buy back stock if they think it is cheap. These little pieces of paper represent the whole company.

Eventually all those things work together to get the right price. Buy, hold or sell? The best section is to look at the front section where they summarized five years of financial and operating history. This is a great business, it is growing, and it requires low capital intensity. Every dollar they make is spent to buy back shares. How much of their salary vs. If they are giving themselves egregious option packages then I will take that into account. Income grew but total assets did not grow.

Their incremental return on capital is infinite. They can grow without reinvesting their capital. Anyone see a problem with using a normalized earnings? Look at the fast growth rate of earnings. Do you think that is sustainable? I shrank the number of shares due to the buy backs down to 3. Time compressed? The market figures it out sooner.

Compare the multiple to the bond rate. Quality of Earnings Example: Commodore. Chain Saw Al stuffed the channels with inventory. Another trick is to write down inventory to 0. If there are any sales in future periods then sales will be inflated and there will be extra profits. Drop in allowance for doubtful accounts is less conservative accounting. Sunbeam still lost money after all these adjustments.

Joel Greenblatt Columbia Class notes on special situations, Please see part I and the disclaimer there he mentions this topic. She finds enough opportunities in that one area. Her returns have been no more volatile than other concentrated investors. She has phenomenal returns focusing on what she knows. There is a great lesson for you. She picked something she really enjoys —that is a very important lesson.

A number of people have come up to me before class and said they will join a big firm and they are afraid they will be pigeon holed. That may be true but to really learn an area very well and still be very profitable. As you invest over a long period of time you will come to know more areas.

Knowing one area well is tremendous. What is a girl from Long Island doing in retail? Pick an area that you can know and that you can understand well and that you enjoy. I like shopping. It is definitely an area I have to come to know well. You start to see patterns. Over a ten-year period you learn how a particular industry group trades that gives you a big advantage over people who are first looking at the stock and coming in cold and not having the background.

I like retail because you are constantly getting information. You get it on a monthly basis and sometimes on a weekly basis. Retailers put out same store sales numbers-Comparable sales in stores for a year-over-year period. Monthly basis but most industry groups you normally get quarterly numbers. The more information you have, the more people try to trade on the information before, after and during. You get a tremendous volatility in this sector. As far as I am concerned, I can live with volatility if there is a good opportunity over the long term.

And if I am taking a two years time horizon that is actually my greatest opportunity—are these monthly numbers. Inevitably these companies are going to miss because of their fault or no fault of their own due to the macro environment.

There will be a missed number and the market tends to have no mercy. So the market kills these stocks. One day it is trading at 20 times and the next day it is trading 10 times earnings but nothing has fundamentally has changed. That fundamentally is your opportunity.

So you must live with a little bit the anxiety. Volatility is your friend. I say this: nobody can predict fashion. It is really is not about hitting the next trend on a continuous basis. Are these companies running a good business over the long-term? Are they running a business that can weather the ups and downs?

The best time to get in is when they missed a season of merchandise because if you look at the fundamentals of the company and it is well-run and the stock gets crushed because they miss a season of merchandise, then it is an opportunity to own for the long term. It is really irrelevant if they pick the hot trends or not. It is very interesting because the Street misses the point on retail. Most analyst reports focus on how this company will do in Oct?

How will this company be affected by Katrina or higher heating prices for Christmas? These are all relevant questions, but not relevant if this is a good business. Fundamentally it will be around. It is that simple. He really misses the point. It is not that simple. If I had to invest that way, I would lose sleep over whether I could consistently do that.

I would have a lot of anxiety in between. If you can take a longer time horizon for one to two years. You have to buy these things when people hate it because that, obviously, is when your opportunities are available. So you have to be a contrarian. Here is the two year price chart, it was up then down. So the first thing you notice there is a lot of money to make in this stock. Yes, they missed sales—is anybody familiar with this story? Basically they were off-trend for a while. They were not sure how to position themselves in the marketplace.

Back in they were not addressing their customer—the fickle teenager. Fast forward six months, they got their inventory under control and they turned their merchandise around. Comparable store sales turned around that was key. To me this is a company that will be around. They have a healthy balance sheet. Yes, they have merchandise misses; yes their same stores sales are down.

But they are making changes to their management team; they are on top of their inventories. They got hit on inventories in Certainly there is potential there. As soon as people as people saw comps stabilizing and they recognize that they could get back to more normalized earnings and margins, the stock basically tripled. This is one example how you can make money in retail if you get in at the right time.

Does anyone know the story here? Basically the same thing happened. Comps were negative for awhile; there were merchandise misses, they tweaked their management team. ANF has a loyal following and they were not going away. If they could just stabilize their margins. Again, they had the highest margins in the business; they had the best ROC in the business—a solidly run business.

The one caveat was that their comps were negative. That is why people knocked the stock down to those levels. JG: By the way, Linda was here in class touting these stocks at the lower prices. Anybody know a little bit about this company? Anyone been into an ARO store? Have you ever not bought something on sale? You immediately feel like you are getting a bargain. That is certainly different from what ANF is trying to do.

Most retailers are only taking their mark downs when they have too. If you see people not buying, I am not going to buy too. We want our customers to feel like they are getting a bargain. It positions them very well in the marketplace. There is certainly a place for them in the marketplace so they are not going head to head with the other guys. This is a one year stock chart. Perhaps there is an opportunity here. We are going to build out their store base and figure out what we think it is worth in a three-to-five year period.

We want to figure out a price target of our own. So obviously, what got me interested was the precipitous fall in the stock price. It certainly made me take a second look. The stock seems pretty interesting; I want to do more work. So they were having big sales to get rid of stale inventories to bring in fresh inventories so margins get crushed in the interim fire sales.

It is a very stable company. They will get their merchandise back on track. They just needed time to weather the storm. A company with heavy debt that misses several merchandising seasons could go bust.

The wheels are in motion, management issues—if there are any—are being addressed and inventory issues are addressed. I would rather see you take a hit and get your inventory problems behind you rather than stretch their problems out over a year. They started to have these issues and everyone piles onto the band wagon investors sell immediately; all the analysts downgrade the stock.

The majority of analysts either have holds on it or sales on it. Nobody wants to get ahead of themselves. Because what is relevant is if this company gets past these issues, can the company be back to normalized margins and earnings and when they do, what is this company worth? Linda has been making money all these years and that is what the chart looks like every time. Those trends will likely continue into spring Jan-Feb. Maybe so, but we are taking a one to two year time horizon.

Downside earnings miss. It is the wrong way to think about things. The time to buy is when everybody knows they are missing comps, have inv issues, etc. You know what, if she knows it, then everyone knows it. This is the time you have to be looking at it and thinking like a contrarian. JG: She has always has done it that way, she is going to keep doing it that way. LG: Pulled off the Bloomberg.

It makes no sense. Of course, they could. Per share once they get through their inventory issues. LG: Management—I like to see someone who has been around for awhile. I like to see a proven management team. As I do more research, I look at: Who is their customer base? Who are their competitors? Is there a reason for their being? Is there a reason people shop at this store vs. Yes, because of price. ARO will win on price. There is a reason for their being. They are competing with the discounters and there are not many other specialty store concepts in the malls that are competing directly with them.

This is the price point they are looking to. They both are way off of their highs, they both are well run and they have a reason for being. LG: It is interesting because those are exactly the two companies I was looking at to add to the portfolio. The growth potential is tremendous. I look at that an American Eagle that is fully saturated at stores. Perhaps they can open another stores. I believe growth will be better with ARO. It will be a few years before Eagle has any growth potential.

AEOS can open a new concept but it will take a year for a test phase and a few more years to get momentum. I like ARO primarily for that. ARO was a little bit less a fashion concept than a fashion follower. I like that position a little better. LG: Same store sales falling and growth in stores?

It really depends upon the issues. You want to understand why the SSS are declining. Ask how the company is addressing the problem or if they are addressing it. If management is blaming it on the weather, oil prices etc. I like companies that take the blame and take responsibility to fix the problem. You know what, there are some macro issues but we have a plan to fix our issues. Student : How do you know when a retail concept is reaching saturation? A to is max saturation for a retailer to go into all three mall types.

An ANF will max out at malls because they are only in A type malls. That is why they launched the Hollister concept which was for lower quality malls: B and C. JG: I will talk to anyone who will talk to me. I will talk to store managers because they often know a lot. I try to talk to senior managers. You will get different information from a senior merchandising manager than a CFO. We talk to people who come out of the store with or without bags. We speak to store employees. It depends upon what we are trying to find out at the time.

When looking into ARO we wanted to see a loyal customer base. Are customers coming in and not buying? What do they think of the merchandise? Are the customers still coming in despite the weak merchandise? One of the basic things we try to understand is what is happening to their customer base during this period of time when they have these merchandising missteps.

You go in with a thesis on the stock. Why is the stock cheap? You go in and try to delve further. The nice thing about retailers is that you have more access to their customers. Again, the more information the better. I go the malls, my partner and a person in her twenties who spends a lot of time in the malls—we all go to the malls to check out stores.

I send my mother or anyone who I know is a potential customer to the store. Everybody has a valid opinion when it comes to retail. We are based on the East Coast so certainly we have a very warped perspective of the world. It is important to be careful not to extrapolate from the East Coast to the whole country. If you are out doing that qualitative research you focus on the entire area not just one area.

LG: When it is a cheap retailer like this, this is the customer who will be hit the hardest because of the high oil prices, but on the other side, the customer who used to shop at Eagle will now shop at ARO because they have less money. I do not spend too much time on spending trends. I try to avoid the macro stuff. Do I think the news of the Macro economy is out there already in the market.

Do I think that every article I have read for the past four months is already in the market? I ask whether this is a cheap stock today and do I think over the next two years there will there be a normal environment. LG: Sometimes I short. I prefer to short more of a basket than a particular stock. These stocks can go to even more ridiculous valuations on the upside. If I do see a company posting double digit comps for several months in a row and it is trading at 50 times earnings, do I think it is sustainable?

You know the day will come. Reversion to the mean. LG: Here is a quick look at the numbers to say this stock looks cheap, so perhaps we want to do more work on it. So that 8. You really want to look out a year. People took down their numbers not because the business is changed but because they got hurt this year. I like to put together my own numbers for next year. This slide is on store potential: It looks pretty exciting for ARO.

Just some Easy numbers to calculate for why the stock looks pretty cheap to me. You asked about growth. ARO with the potential for another stores and the other, Jimmy concept could be stores. I was more conserve with stores, but there is a lot of store potential there. The analysts write that the margins are really under pressure; we hesitate to recommend it until the get back to better margins investing in the rear view mirror. This says to me, Wow, there is basis point of operating margin improvement in operating margin here.

They have big room for improvement You need to look at normalized margins not depressed margins. That This leads me to a valuation of the stock. But the point being is that I see I get excited. There is huge potential upside here from LG: You like to see that has experience opening a large number of stores in a year.

You want to be sure that they have a good model, they can format the store, they know what their customer is looking for, and they are earning attractive ROICs. As they gain confidence then the store opening can accelerate. JG: A new store may not do as well as a more mature store. Ask if there are too many stores opening saturation or something else is going on. I always want to discount their expansion. What is a fair discount for growth? Be aware that the quality of merchandising may affect same store sales more than the number of stores opening or the company being close to a saturation point.

JG: This slide is a little confusing, but it helps you come up with a thesis as to when the stock is cheap; where you want to buy. I try to take a look out over a five year period and place a terminal valuation on the stock over that five year period. When I make may assumptions, I want to be very conservative.

So I assume they test for another two years, then they slowly open 50 stores a year. If you look at how Arrow opened their store base, once they has their concept down, they opened stores a year. These are conservative estimates.

My assumptions are not aggressive in terms of how I do my valuation. Over next five years they have 2. That is the number I am using for the additional store openings. I am not assuming big things for comps again.

You can take a look at competitors to get the numbers. What is the potent earnings power over that five year period? Normal margins—peak margins were Mind you that the company believes it has the pot to do north of that. Jimmy has the potential to open stores but they will only have stores opened by the end of five years. Then the build up of cash over the five years. I am assuming that management does not pay dividend or buy back stock, they just sit on their cash.

That is one way to look at it. JG: Right. I just want to make another important point that Linda made—she built out her store base. But what Linda does is just so logical. She builds out the whole concept; it makes sense.

She used conservative margins and store openings. So this exercise is figuring out what it is worth and being super conservative. If there is a big gap between what it is worth and what you are paying, then you have something that is pretty good. They could have stores at the end of the five years not just stores like I mentioned in my assumptions. I am assuming a flattish pick-up of same store sales, but they could do better.

What type of return do mall based stores typically have? JG: They break out the capex for stores then I multiply by the new stores they open per year—that is how I reach that number. In terms of MCX, it varies. What are the assumptions or the things that could happen in a good way which I am not including?

I am very conservative. LG: I would exit if the price was revalued much faster than my five year estimates. I have yet to sell a stock at its peak. The exam will be a test of your valuation skills. The one thing about the final is that I generally keep them so when someone asks me about you; I can see the results of your exam. Cap Company manufacturing and selling active wear and footwear. Student: We see it cheap for a number of reasons: Negative sentiment. Miscues in product rollouts.

They have no debt and strong cash flow. They have profitable investment opportunities. They are growing. The management team is solid. They are fully vested. They have announced a stock buy back. How many shares outstanding?

Shareholder friendly management. Corporate responsibility is good. Human rights are one of their concerns. Risks: Not getting the fashion trends right. Risk is mostly in the US business. JG: One of the points that always come out is do you subtract all cash? You have to decide whether any of that cash is needed. Remember that retailers need to keep cash in their registers all the time, so do not subtract the full amount of cash on the balance sheet.

The multiples and the margins—we took them down from where they have been. JG: How about on an absolute basis? How do you justify that? Students: This is a great company over a long period of time. JG: Did you factor in how much room they have to expand—grow their store base? How much more expansion do they have? Ask why that tax rate is lower or if that tax rate is sustainable?

Student: Timberland is growing abroad so we do not see repatriation as an issue. We also discounted back two years in our valuation. Analyst: How does the business break out between domestic and international operations regarding operation margins? What are international competitors doing? How much of their business comes from the work boot area versus their entire sales because you said their strong margins are due to their strong customer loyalty in foot wear.

Student: Timberland messed up on apparel in the US so earnings for are depressed temporarily we believe. Analyst: Did you break out their licensing revenue from other revenue? Licensing revenue is very high margin revenue. Analyst: Companies will tell you if you ask them to break out their licences. You can always assume the licenses.

Increase in operating margins. The management is shutting down over-size big store concepts in early and improving their operating margins. Domestic growth is uncontested in Footwear for teens. Growth in mall space across the US. Average store size square feet. Year-by-year growth in sq. CAGR is 2. Sales per Sq. JG: They have been closing some of their stores and that will stop, so using net square footage number may be misleading. So I would look inside that number to see what was the growth of the smaller stores ex-the closing of the big-store concept.

What you said is that they are closing the big store concept while their square footage is growing 2. Look at growth with just the small store concept. Break out the concepts! We do think there will be competition from Finish Line. We put an 8 multiple on that since the business is not growing. Analyst: Pension debt in regards to Enterprise Value?

Did you adjust the Pension liabilities if needed and add to your EV? JG: Did you break out the domestic and international divisions? They have different margins and margin opportunities. I think you have the big picture, and you did a nice job with not much time.

I am trying to point out what I would do. The more you can break it the Company apart the better. In some businesses the different parts feed on each other. But in FL there is enough disparity in the growth opportunities, the margins and the competitive landscape in Europe vs. There is a lot of room there. The question is where it lands. Management believes that their margins can be double digits.

I am trying to bring up issues as how I would approach it. Their competitive position is very strong since their nearest competitor is five times smaller? The scariest thing to get into earnings is that you feel the urge to go to a reversion to the mean thesis or management estimate thesis like FL. Often those are the best answers you can come to, but the best you can do in all cases is to try to get as bottom up to that number as you can.

Do what Joel suggested which is to separate the businesses. You did that with operating leases and how they made progress at FL. In some cases where rent is different than market rates, it can matter so you have to adjust for market rates to figure out normalized.

The most important time to add pension debt to the EV is when the company is not funding expense through the income statement. Sometimes pensions get screwed up because it is done on a lagged smoothed basis. So you must make sure you add back the pension debt on an adjusted present value basis if it is under funded. Students: A mall based Store. They have stores. JG: What type of growth do you use for them? Is there inflation growth?

JG: Why are they not growing now? So you are assuming mature growth in five to ten years? What did you do with the cash? JG: Why are their margins so high—they can source their goods very cheaply? JG: Buy one; steal one—a store that had small, cheap jewelry for teenagers. You gave it a low multiple of 12, but this company has profitable growth—perhaps it deserves a higher multiple—especially where the market is currently trading at.

Cross Checking Your Multiple. Did you do a discounted cash flow analysis to determine an appropriate multiple? It might be interesting to have a matrix of various growth rates to judge the multiple. Where does your 12 multiple fit into that? You figured a 15x multiple 6. You are probably being too conservative which is OK because you are trying to buy it at a huge discount. Now, if you can find things a lot cheaper than that fine.

But instead of picking 12 multiple out of the air, it is nice to go through that matrix to determine the appropriate multiple. K-Swiss designs and outsource the manufacturing of footwear. A nice stable growth business. The company takes six or seven years to integrate an acquisition of a new campus. They have made 80 acquisitions in the past four years. With time when the sentiments improve this stock should start its next journey, how well it will be only time will tell. If you have listened to the latest concall, it was clearly explained for the subdued performance of CPC.

The price of CPC is in flat trend with downward bias. CTP is doing well with firming up of prices and reorganised devisions are expected to contribute inthe coming qtrs. Going forward with the uptick of US Aluminium smelters ramping up the capacity with the restarting of old shut down capacities and expected new capacities, augurs well for the buoyancy in prices of CPC n CTP.

With the new product for Lithium anode coating is expected to fowell considering the intension of world to move towards EVs. With the capacity expansion planned over next couple of years will keep topline growth as well as margin growth.

Of course the debt is going to stay due to capex. In view of the above, there is no deceleration in the growth trajectory planned by the company and with their intention to not to loose profitability for topline growth, they are expected maintain their earning growth. Price will sooner or later will catch up with the reality. Good luck. So my views are biased. I agree with most except price trend of CPC. Besides CPC prices are expected to rise plus from around in So CPC price trend is definitely not having downward bias.

Due to winter closing of Chinese smelters, excess qty of CpC is sloshing around. This demand supply mismatch is driving the CPC price trend in short term. Their new products such as HHCR is well received by mkt which is fetching good margin. It is a growth stock n short term price zyration shd not cloud our judgement. Of course One arbitrage fund has played a spoil sport to destruct the price structure. This shd hv been anticipated when we know that one arbitrage fund is holding substantial qty.

Now the question is how high can this go. My guess, we are more near the top, than mid cycle. In Mar qtr, one of the clients bargained hard to keep CPC prices lower. All put together, only pros are cheap valuations 7x CY19 PE on peak-cylce earnings? Dont see big returns for the stock in coming year or two, although dont see any downside too. It should be noted that of the growth in US smelting capacity that management mentioned on concall, more than half of the increase is by Alcoa which restarted its own calcination plant in US to supply CP coke to its smelters.

So there will be some demand growth for independent calciners like Rain but not as much as the growth in smelting capacity would suggest. The other question is what CP coke margin can be defended. I agree that from here it is more about maintaining margin than expanding it.

Also growth investors were attracted to this scrip because of sequential earnings growth while the spread was expanding which has ceased at least for now. The big sell off in the shares probably reflects those investors exiting. From here how does the stock go up? Will the value investors who missed the last run enter here?

Or will they avoid it because of the lateness of the cycle? The bull case is that China is starting a lot of new aluminum smelting capacity this year and next year. Some consultants estimate 4 million tons in and combined which would require 1. That could soak up Chinese cpc exports and resume earnings growth for Rain.

A peny saved is the Penny one earned. I find it is really time to relook in to the rain industry with exciting steps the mangement had implemented , some excerpts from AR Disc: i may be bullish as iam holding the stock. This si not any stock recomendation. How can you include debt in calculating value per share? It is represinting the theoretical takeover price if a company to be bought. To certainextent you might be right as EBITDA is useful for valuing capital-intensive businesses with high levels of depreciation and amortization.

If you have som other means so i would request to share how should one calculate the EV in case of capital intensive industries like petrochemicals ,Power industries or oil or gas or Mining and metals or the one you mentioned it will be great to learn from you. True that it is theoretical take over price, just control premium needs to be added. However, being an owner, I have to pay the amount due to financiers.

I can not count that part as mine. I would say, replacement cost can be a good measure to value such companies. I am no expert in this industry, so I generally stay away. Also, personally I do not solely rely on comparative multiples. For me, first of all, the company should be fairly valued in itself. Then I would compare it with respect to industry finding more reasons why should I buy this company vs others in the industry.

Many times, industries in themselves are overvalued due to optimism eg. Also, the content in article could turnout to be entirely untrue only by , we can tell whether their projection will be right or not. The counter arguments and facts to prove my basic premise to be wrong are most welcome. It seems China is limiting the capacity of steel manufacturing from current level and allowing only new EAF capacity less polluting to replace the old blast furnace capacity polluting.

Assuming no major draw down in Aluminium production in China or proportionately with respect to Blast furnace capacity lower cut down in aluminium production would probably ensure less Coal Tar to CTP generation. Counter point: Again, Rain is just a converter and may not enjoy the gains due to pricey CTP, as Coal Tar price would have gone up due to supply tightness in china. Another point to ponder: The ban on Pet coke as fuel in india whose raw material is also green petrolium coke affecting the fuel pet coke price to come down no idea whether prices have come down or not , which would further bring down the prices in GPC?

Disc: invested avg price of about rs and staying invested. The above points are not part of my thesis for staying invested. ValuePickr Research Resources Basics. Rain Industries - An oversold de-leveraging play Stock Opportunities.

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