In , the number of mandates for liability-driven investment rose by to , a 21% increase, according to KPMG'S annual LDI survey. By. example, the Green Bay Packers football club is owned by members of the general public, an amount driven largely by $5 billion in television contracts. environment, English club football's profile, exposure and increasingly global interest have continued to drive revenue growth, allowing the clubs to invest. INVESTIR DANS LES ACTIONS BOSTONDYNAMICS Recipe Objective In is not the scenarioswe seamless access to. Much faster than. In addition to type command prompt single location that X applications to.
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IMF Research Bulletin. IMF Research Perspectives. Advanced search Help. Browse Topics Business and Economics. Archived Series. Previous Article Next Article. External Liabilities and Crises. Author: Luis A. Download PDF 1, Abstract Full Text. Abstract We examine the determinants of external crises, focusing on the role of foreign liabilities and their composition. Introduction Large current account imbalances over the past decade have given rise to sizeable cross-country differences in net foreign asset NFA positions, as documented by the extensive literature on global imbalances.
Figure 1. Crisis Definition and Data Our initial sample consists of 70 countries of which 41 are emerging markets spanning Figure 2. Crisis Dynamics and Model-Free Threshold Estimates We start by examining the pre- and post-crisis dynamics of a few variables that are most relevant for crisis risk. Figure 3. Figure 4. Crisis Model A. Model Selection Criterion We now turn to the question of how far NFL positions and their composition matter in determining crisis probabilities in a broad multivariate context.
Figure 5. Table 1. Figure 6. Table 2. Baseline Crisis Definition: Probit Estimates. Table 3. Elasticity Estimates for Favored Specification. At this point, such concerns have perhaps run ahead of the actual developments. The tariffs on Chinese goods have not yet been implemented, and they are subject to a lengthy review As we explained in that paper, investors define1 ESG in a variety The level of discourse around the value of Environmental, Social and Governance ESG investing has increased in recent years, leading many to consider whether and how to incorporate ESG across their own portfolios.
The best portfolios carefully balance risk and reward. An important part of assessing portfolio risk is the While there are no guarantees, at Western Asset we feel very strongly that our value-driven investment process combined with our Various Federal Reserve Fed policymakers expect US inflation to accelerate in , and financial market analysts generally agree with them. Of course, these same folks predicted rising inflation in previous years as well.
It is In recent years we have seen a marked increase in client interest for global bonds, reflecting the potential investment return and diversification benefits available outside of domestic markets. This brief overview reviews how Western Asset approaches global bond investing—supported by our enduring The US mortgage market has evolved significantly in response to the subprime mortgage crisis.
The crisis was the direct result of an inflated housing market fueled by a credit bubble in mortgage lending, with subprime lending defining its pinnacle. We see neither of these conditions present today; h This note is a review and update of how we approach the field of unconstrained investing. Briefly, we feel each investor needs to establish a framework for The experience of investing in emerging markets EM local debt during the period from to was analogous to that of peeling an onion.
It was not for the faint of heart; as layers were removed, it was a constant battle to hold back tears. This confirmed our thesis that the Trump Administration would be looking for Fed candidates who were 1 pro-growth, 2 comfortable with low short-term interest rates, The conventional wisdom when it comes to investment management is that asset allocation is the single largest contributor to long-term returns—somethi He explains how this currency-focused strategy aims to generate a competitive positive return, irrespective of the market environment for global Global financial regulation continues to evolve and shape the behavior of investors.
For the insurance industry in Europe, the impact of Solvency II—which sets forth guidelines concerning the amount of capital that insurers must hold to reduce the risk of insolvency—continues to permeate. The daily barrage of headlines on tax reform can be dizzying. This note is an attempt to do just that. We first take a view on the chances of tax reform Currently, when crafting LDI solutions for defined benefit DB schemes, the pension community tends to focus attention on matching the duration of assets with liabilities.
Introduction The financial industry in Europe is about to change. Stricter oversight regulation intended to enhance investor protection, preserve market integrity and improve overall transparency will become effective on 3 January Most of the details have been out for a while, and all that really happened today was making the plan official by including it in the FOMC statement.
Western Asset has written extensively on t In the letter, he asked fo The US economic recovery continues. US unemployment is back to pre-crisis levels at 4. One might even make the case Media stories about who is favored are appearing with increasing frequency and attracting a lot of attention. Potential candidates are trying to raise their profiles and thereby increase Now in , central b It was 10 years ago this month that we saw the start of a significant widening of spreads in bank bonds and the corporate credit markets more generally.
Since then, bank regulation globally has played a critical role in transforming the business model from a casino-like venture into a less volatile With UK government gilt yields near historic lows, the prevailing wisdom is that gilts are now prohibitively expensive and wise investors should steer clear. For those of us with long memories, this view is reminiscent of the experience of the Japanese government bond market 20 years ago, when Japan It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.
In , Western Asset set out to develop an aggressive, unconstrained fixed-income strategy—Macro Opportunities MO —to offer our clients the opportunity to generate returns in a slow-growth, low-rate environment. When to hold and when to fold—the keys to success that every gambler knows. The Federal Reserve Fed raised the federal funds target rate as expected on Wednesday despite unspectacular growth, underwhelming inflation and only modest wage growth.
The Fed certainly took all of these factors into account, as well as considering the positive growth in the US and improving grow You are a defined-benefit DB pension plan sponsor who has improved funded status to the point where you want to seriously de-risk via a customized Liability Driven Investing LDI solution.
What kind of allocation should you adopt? Most of our competitors would advise building a solution portfolio Policies and planning would have to adapt to this reality. Commodity prices had plumm The path of global inflation is rightly never far from the minds of monetary policymakers and investors.
The challenge stems from both the myriad investment opportunities now available, as well as the inherent complexities surrounding asset al Western Asset continues to be constructive on emerging markets debt EMD as we believe fundamentals, valuations and technicals are still likely to be supportive of the asset class over the medium-term. Global central bank accommodation has helped remove tail-risk scenarios and put a floor on global With just under a week to go, the first round of the French presidential elections is upon us, and some worry it will follow in the footsteps of the political tsunamis of Until recently seemingly a two-horse race, the polls now suggest convergence on an almost-equal probability for each of the Judging by financial market reaction and popular opinion, there is a strong consensus that prospective tax reform policies will lead to upward pressure on interest rates.
We will argue here that the effects of reductions in marginal tax rates are at worst uncertain and that the presumption actually Since ending its third asset purchase program QE3 in , the Fed has continued to participate actively i After the political tsunamis of —with the unexpected decisions by the British to leave the EU, and the Americans to elect Donald Trump president—the political nexus in shifts to the eurozone.
The coming months herald parliamentary and presidential elections in the Netherlands, France and Ge We believe global bonds should have a role in your broad investment portfolio. The global bond market has grown dramatically over the past 20 years due to a number of secular forces and now offers investors a much richer universe of investment opportunities across a number of regions, sectors and cu Infrastructure may be the only area where bipartisan action by this Congress predictably can create large numbers of solid jobs, enhance growth and income opportunities for American investors, and help invigorate our economy.
Our country needs Since the onset of the financial crisis, we have been steadfast optimists that the global and US recoveries would be ongoing. Our feeling is and has been that despite the enormous headwinds facing global growth, the natural economic healing process, the persistence and ingenuity of the human spirit, Settel outlines why we believe bank loans present an attractive investment opportunity.
The surprise election of Donald Trump continues to be the focus for investors. The prospect of a new policy environment, and the various attendant risks, have led to a rethinking of economic forecasts and significant repricing across asset classes. The outlook for the Federal Reserve Fed is, of co Given the high degree of uncertainty around the agenda of the incoming Trump administration, Western Asset is focused on reviewing the implications of potential initiatives on the fixed-income markets and identifying value opportunities for client portfolios.
Treasury Secretary nominee Steven Mnuch The result was a shock to most, possibly including Mr. Most—although not all—opinion polls pointed to a Hillary Clinton win. Betting markets were even more unequivocally pro-Clinton. Prediction markets such as the I With many investment options available, Mr. Marki and Mr. While our fundamental philosophy, process and view of risk management have always remained the same, we are continually working to enhance our risk management process to meet evolving demands.
One such enhancement has been a multi-year initiative to develop a proprietary risk system: Western Infor Most corporate defined benefit DB plans continue to follow a risk-on strategy, positioned to benefit from rising stock prices and higher interest rates—a strategy that has not worked well for the last 20 years. In this paper, we suggest that hoping for funded status to improve via further stock pr The transaction has implications for the Barclays indices but more importantly it established an immovable deadline for many asset managers to find and implement a replacement for B We believe your bond allocation is the place for active management.
Since the financial crisis, passive flows into equities have accelerated and as of late they seem to have accelerated on the bond side of the equation as well. Buying inexpensive index performance may, on the surface, look like a go Managing portfolio duration is a key focus for fixed-income portfolio managers. But active portfolio duration can change even when the portfolio manager does not make a deliberate choice to alter it. Our colleague Bonnie Wongtrakool has pointed out that changes in benchmark composition can cause imp We th Next, we will review the market reaction, the potential rationale behind observed price movements and our own view.
Last, we will review our portfolio construction, discuss winners and losers and comment on potential p A longstanding pension client recently asked Western Asset to help them prepare for a Board presentation. Italian bonds have experienced a spectacular rally since the eurozone crisis in late Despite the changing valuations, Western Asset has remained constructive.
Key to our positive thesis was the seminal shift in Italian politics ushered in under Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to break the cycle of The analysis behind such assertions concedes that sharp declines in labor force participation rates are the primary factor allowing unemployment rates to decline during this expansion, but th Of late, my vacation itinerary has steered clear of must-see tourist spots. The shift, while perhaps denying me some bragging rights, was prompted by the underwhelming feeling that inevitably sets in after actually visiting one of these iconic places.
These sights seem to pale when compared to the v I was recently asked, as part of a panel, to speak to the issue of the flattening yield curve. The number was times. Since its inception in , this unconstrained strategy has sought to maximize income and expected total return within a specif The basic facts about municipal bonds are well known to investors: Their income is exempt from federal income tax—and some provide income that is exempt from specific state income taxes.
They are generally of high quality. Their track record suggests defaults are extremely rare and bondholders remai Unconstrained investing is back in the spotlight. Once embraced by some investors and consultants as a magic bullet against rising US interest rates and as an opportunistic way to access new and growing segments of the global fixed-income universe, this approach is now generating some skepticism due Since our webcast in early February, the credit rally has been nothing short of remarkable.
More specifically, since February 11, , US high-yield and US investment-grade markets have rallied Our bullish view back in February was based on the belief that co The UK has voted to leave the EU, a historic decision that will reshape and continue to send shocks through the market. Andrew Belshaw, Head of Investment Management, London, discusses the political and economic implications, as well as what this means for European bond markets and currencies, and t There was no mention in the post-meeting state While the commercial mortgage-backed securities CMBS market has been known to exhibit periods of high volatility, the first few weeks of were the most volatile since the credit crisis and took many market participants by surprise.
As our expectations for economic growth and commercial real es Our contention remains that the US and global economy are experiencing slow but stable growth. Central banks are largely supportive and valuations remain attractive for spread product sectors, despite the rebounding spread rally since early February.
The three fears that overlapped to collapse risk After plunging sharply during the crisis, the US housing market has largely recovered and stabilized. Strength in pending home sales Exhibit 2 and low primary mortga The fact that the UK on 23 June is embarking on a referendum on its membership of the EU for the second time in just over 40 years is symptomatic of its somewhat schizophrenic relationship with its neighbours.
However, the situation is even worse when you include unfunded pension obligations. All combined, the island is encumbered with liabilities that surpass th We are now 7 years past the crisis lows and when equity prices began their recovery in March of Since that moment, investors have persistently feared an equal but opposite reaction in the fixed-income markets in the form of lower bond prices and higher yields. The fact is that since the beginn In fact, credit spreads have risen to What gives?
The savage pummeling the credit markets have taken is so out of proportion to other markets, or to the current economic and Federal Reserve Fed narrative, that there almost appear to be two parallel realities. The first is that the US economy is in reasonable shape, exhibiting modest g The first 2 months of the year have not gone the way the Federal Reserve Fed hoped they would.
Agency MBS are created when residential mortgage loans that meet agency underwriting guidelines1 are securitized into a Every defined-benefit DB pension plan aspires to fulfill its obligations to beneficiaries. The Federal Reserve Fed is widely expected to increase interest rates at its meeting next week.
Exhibit 1 Other parts of financial markets have responded as She explains how this investment-grade only, unconstrained strategy aims to generate a competitive positive return, irrespective of the market environment for global This mid-quarterly note comes in three parts. Second, we discuss upcoming Federal Reserve Fed policy. Last, we have a brief overview of the interest rate swap Investors in global fixed-income markets are currently grappling with a challenging dilemma: how to secure a reasonable level of income from bonds while maintaining the role of bonds as a ballast to equities and a tool for capital preservation.
More than 7 years after the onset of the global financ Since its inception in , this unconstrained strategy has sought to max Whether and when the Fed raises the funds rate is a major issue for fixed-income markets, but it is not the main event.
The larger issue is the divergence of US and global growth and even more importantly, inflation. The conditions for an interest rate increase that Fed Chair Janet Yellen has laid o Buyers must find sellers, and sellers must find buyers. Buchanan offers his perspective on reduced liquidity in fixed-income Recent volatility in the Chinese bourses has led to systemic fears in China and global growth worries.
From a 7. In our previous note, we expounded the view that ultimately Greece and its creditors would come to an agreement over the extension of the bailout package as both sides had much to lose. That remains our view, but, clearly, after the events of last weekend, uncertainty has risen, as has the probabili As we approach a potentially significant crossroads where the divergence in monetary policy paths between the Federal Reserve Fed and other major developed market central banks—specifically the European Central Bank ECB and Bank of Japan BoJ —looks set to increase further over the coming years, US GDP data have disappointed yet again.
This paper presents a risk-factor approach to Liability Driven Investing LDI and analyzes the sensitivities of both pension liabilities and assets to these factors. LDI allocations are subsequently achieved by matching these asset and liability sensitivities as closely as is practicable. By workin We constantly hear that managers do not outperform their benchmarks.
While this may be true in the large-cap equity space, it is decidedly false in fixed-income. The median fixed-income manager has consistently outperformed the benchmark Barclays U. Aggregate Bond Index over 3-, 5- and 7-year peri Settel provides an overview of managing US bank loan assets, market inefficiencies and current portfolio The reasons for the change in sentiment are well known.
The Municipal Desk continues to find value for the crossover investor in municipal credit spread. Increased regulatory oversight and requirements have greatly reduced the risk of a financial crisis similar to that experienced in However, an ancillary result of the ne For almost 40 years, money market funds have offered a comprehensive solution for cash investors by providing three main benefits—preservation of capital, liquidity and yield—all with a simple structure that has provided ease of use.
However, in the years since the financial crisis, regulators have A value investor is charged with being very explicit in analyzing risk. What are our specific expectations for a security, sector, or strategy, and how does that differ from the market price? The bigger the difference, the larger the margin of safety. With macro strategies, valuation will depend on Carl also details the key aspects of our philosophy and process and the role they play in portfolio As the Federal Reserve Fed starts the new year, there is one thing conspicuously absent from its communications: quantitative guidance.
This is a notable change. In contrast to the date-based guidance of and and the threshold-based commitment of and , the most recent Federal Ope In the past month, crude oil prices have fallen rapidly to levels not seen in more than two years, sounding alarm bells among investors.
In this paper, we address our view on how the oil market arrived at this position, the dynamics under current and future consideration, and how Western Asset, as l Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is long past the ocean is flat again.
Such public health events can strain healthcare system resources and at times impact investor psychology. While this invest Our diversified strategies have performed well in and we believe they are likely to be appropriate in Global crosscurrents have cut into spread products even as the economic story-lines remain favorable.
Global inflation is shifting downward and the US dollar is gaining, which is producin However, the last few weeks have challenged this view. Following a slightly hawkish tone from the Fed at its September meeting, US corporate and emergin Following a wobbly start to the year, emerging market EM external sovereign debt has rebounded markedly to outperform most major asset classes.
The global picture remains one of a forward-moving but uninspiring recovery. The overhang of geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East also clouds the outlook In the past, the Jackson Hole conference has been an opportunity for Fed chairs to argue for adjustments to monetary policy.
Alan Greenspan used the On July 23, , the U. MMF reform has been a priority for US regulators Of course, the Act and its continuing effects did not occur in a vacuum; they are the latest Astute investors have a keen appreciation of the risks they face. At the stroke of the midnight hour, when the world sleeps, India will awake to life and freedom. A moment comes, which comes but rarely in history, when we step out from the old to the new, when an age ends, and when the soul of a nation, long suppressed, finds utterance.
Jawaharlal Nehru, August Recently, the increased risk in Emerging Markets EM has led to questions about what forces are at work and where the opportunities may be going forward. As one would guess, the longer beneficiaries can be expected to survive and collect benefits, the larger will be th Our thesis that the US and global recovery would prove a very long and drawn out affair persists.
The good news is that we are now further from the conditions threatening systemic risk emanating from the financial crisis. The challenging news is that the normalization of economic conditions will sti These are generally smaller companies than those we see in the high-yield bond ma Federal Reserve Fed officials determine the appropriate stance of monetary policy based on their outlook for employment and inflation.
To some extent their outlook is based on developments in the latest economic data. In pension management as in life, simple is usually better. There are all kinds of complex fixed-income strategies a plan can engage in to reduce risk, but our research indicates that these provide little or no advance over simple derisking moves.
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Please Register or Login to view this content. Already have an account? That's why an integrated, precise approach to LDI implementation is important to: Improve your ability to meet long-term goals Enable more timely decision making Help to better predict the impacts of your plan on overall corporate finance Developing your LDI strategy.
Our goal is your goal: Ensuring the appropriate level of risk and return in your portfolio. Implementing LDI within an integrated model can provide significant benefits and efficiencies to your organization, including: Minimal handoffs and opportunities for error Full transparency of fixed income securities, for a more precise liability match Ongoing monitoring, integrated reporting and glidepath management A sophisticated, cost-efficient approach for plans, regardless of size A strong link between organizational goals and implementation.
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